Wind-Powered Manufacturing

One of the most interesting stories to come out of the first WIndiana wind conference this week was the story of the Time Factory wind turbine installation in an industrial park on the northwest side of Indianapolis. 

Owner Jim Purcell recounted three-year project and his struggle getting zoning approval for the 50kW Entegrity wind turbine that stands 125 feet above his 22,000 square-foot calendar publishing factory. He also explained his business case for the wind turbine, which was compelling. 

Utilizing the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which allows a 100% depreciation of wind systems in one year, a $25,000 grant from the Indiana Office of Energy and Defense and a $5000 grant from Indianapolis Power and Light, Purcell is anticipating a 7-year payback on his $170,000 investment in clean energy. In Purcell's words, "this is a no-brainer." Thanks in part to his pathfinding, at least four more of these "small wind" systems are in the works in the Indianapolis area. 

See a related post Hybrid Power or Your Home and the previous posts on WIndiana.

Green, Affordable, Disaster-Resistant Kit Homes

If you are looking to rebuild quickly after being flooded out or blown out by recent storms in the Midwest, you may want to have a look at LV Series Homes by Rocio Romero that can withstand 150-mile-per-hour winds and have about twice the insulation of a standard home. 

There are several elegant modern prefab green homes out there now (see Living Homes, Marmol Radziner, Glidehouse) but they tend to be rather expensive. Romero's LV Series homes are panelized kits that are among the most attractive prefabs I've seen and by far the least expensive (assuming you get a good deal on the assembly or do some of it yourself). A 1400-square-foot 2-bedroom home sells for $45,000 and 

is shipped on one flatbed truck. Has Habitat for Humanity seen these?

I'm writing this from my crowded home office lusting after the LVM studio cube that would look great in my back yard above the high water mark for less than $24,000. Some assembly required.

WIndiana 2008 - Day 2

Day 2 of Indiana's first WIndiana wind conference (see previous post for Day 1) began with a panel of utility company representatives talking about the opportunities and obstacles presented by wind power. Panel members included David Ziegner Commissioner of the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, Greg Wagoner representing Wabash Valley Power, Larry Brown of the Indiana Municipal Power Agency, Marc E. Lewis, Indiana Michigan Power Company, Diane Jenner of Duke Energy and Richard Benedict of Indianapolis Power and Light. 

Larry Fowler pointed out that wind energy was not on the Indiana radar ten years ago when a remark was made at an energy conference that "wind opportunities in Indiana are negligible." He also noted that when Fowler Ridge Wind Farm is completed, Indiana will find itself among the top 15 wind states in the country. Some common themes among the panel members were that wind is something they are investing in to diversify their portfolios and hedge against the potential for carbon legislation or a national or state Renewable Portfolio Standard (found in 26 states, but not in Indiana). All expressed some concerns for greater implementation of wind power: 

• predominantly off-peak power, not mid-summer hot afternoon
• intermittant power with 15% to 30% capacity factor (rated production not available all the time)
• the transmission infrastructure is outdated and not designed to handle new power resources and there's a long queue to get new projects on the grid
• the alternative energy Production Tax Credit expires at the end of 2008 and a predictable tax credit environment is necessary to make investment more attractive
• uncertainty over carbon legislation; most favored Federal legislation to set the rules of the game as soon as possible so companies could plan their future in a carbon-constrained world, which most agreed was inevitable

Rising costs are also inevitable according to many of the panelists for wind and for fossil fuels due to rising global demand for fuels and resources needed to manufacture plants, turbines and wiring. With carbon legislation and stricter emissions controls looming, Greg Wagoner of Wabash Valley said predictions of electric power price increases by industry experts ranged from 30% to 150%.

Duke Energy's Diane Jenner listed Energy Effciency as their "fifth fuel" after coal, gas, nuclear and renewables. 

I spent the rest of the morning listening to the other end of the wind power spectrum, small wind (typically systems under 100 kW) that run on the other side of the electric meter. Another track at the conference explored opportunities for Indiana manufacturers to get into the wind business.

With small wind systems, you can create your own wind power plant for your home, farm or business. More on that in the next blog, including the story of the Time Factory, a small business in Indianapolis with it's own wind turbine and how it will have a 7-year payback with a little help from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. 

This  first WIndiana conference appeared to be a successful and well-run venture with over 300 attendees. 

(See also previous post on Hybrid Power for Your Home)

WIndiana 2008 - Day 1

A packed house listened this morning at the first WIndiana wind energy conference at the Indianapolis Convention Center as Lieutenant Governor Becky Skillman ran the numbers. Indiana now has 130 MW of wind power in place (up from 0 at the beginning of the year), and will have 530 MW (enough to power 132,500 homes) by the end of this year. She also noted that 2500 MW of new wind is in planning  in 15 counties in Indiana. According to Wind Powering America, each 1000MW of wind power has a $1.3 billion economic impact on Indiana.

This represents a major step away from Indiana's almost total dependency on coal. While Indiana gets 96% of it's electric power from coal, the national average is 50%. This places Indiana in a precarious position as coal prices rise due to international demand, a carbon tax or cap and trade system, and tighter emission controls phase in. Dirt cheap coal-fired electricity is about to go the way of $2.50 gas, and that may not be all bad for the Hoosier state.

Unlike coal-fired power plants, wind farms emit no sulfur dioxide or nitrous oxide or particulates or mercury or carbon dioxide and they don't require cooling water. Indiana has a wealth of free wind and an excellent transmission grid connected to major markets in other states. According to Larry Flowers of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, new wind power is cheaper than new coal powered electricity. You can view the presentation he gave this morning here. Wind is an intermittant resource and it will never replace all coal plants, but it can be a substantial portion of a renewable energy portfolio along with solar, biomass and other renewables. Indiana will play a key role in the national goal of 20% wind energy by 2030. 

Day 2 of WIndiana 2008 will feature the major utility companies' take on the situation. The second half of the morning will feature two tracks: one for Indiana manufacturers wishing to learn how to get into the business of manufacturing the giant turbines and another for small wind systems suitable for small businesses or homes. The conference will conclude with tours of big wind and small wind installations.

The Six Sins of Greenwashing

Terrachoice, a marketing firm specializing in green marketing and related research has published a revealing study called "The Six Sins of Greenwashing." Their study found that 99% of green product claims are actually greenwashing. 

The sin I find particularly applicable to "green buildings" is the Sin of No Proof. Many high-profile projects are advertised as green but no certification can be found to back up the claim. If you are tempted to call your building green without certification by LEED or Green Globes or Energy Star or NAHB or any other third-party certification, do yourself a favor and read the Terrachoice article.  Consumers are becoming more savvy when it comes to false or misleading claims and a number of web sites have popped up to search and destroy those claims. Check out the American Public Media "Greenwash Brigade" for example.

A good source for a definition of greenwashing and more links on the topic is SourceWatch.

Indiana: Crossroads of Supercells - Our Future?

You probably thought that I had a case of carpel tunnel syndrome after my last lengthy post; The Cubic Mile of Oil, since I have been absent for so long. Unfortunately, nearly all my waking hours since then have revolved around recovering from supercell thunderstorms that have been raking the Midwest. And I have had it easy compared to other Hoosiers.

As I write this, my neighbors in the counties south of here are battling floodwaters the likes of which we have not seen in Indiana since 1913, and some communities have already broken the records from that historic storm. Some counties south of the metro area received more than a quarter of the average annual rainfall in less than 24 hours, with some locations receiving an unbelievable eleven inches of rain. We are becoming used to the images on local weather broadcasts (kudos to the WTHR team coverage) that track multiple chains of severe thunderstorms across our state with the high-tech graphics that show cartoon tornadoes, but on the ground, we are growing weary of the sandbags, pumps, downed trees, power outages, flooded fields, closed roads, evacuated homes, tornado-ravaged communities, ruined personal belongings and mildewed walls.

A truly sustainable green building should be designed for disaster resistance. A building that is easily damaged by the types of disasters that can normally be expected in a particular location is a candidate for the landfill. That is becoming much more challenging in our time of climate destabilization where supercell thunderstorms and the tornadoes and torrential rains they spawn are becoming a weekly occurance across the Midwest.

I currently have a two-foot tall sand-bag dam around the front of my house and gas-powered two-inch discharge trash pump sitting on my front porch. No, I do not live in a flood zone. Living anywhere near a 100-year flood zone or even a 500-year flood zone does not meet my criteria for disaster-resistant site selection. In fact, my Indianapolis neighborhood, Highland Kessler, received its name for the fact that it is a good seventy feet above the White River that attracted early settlers here. Downtown Indianapolis should flood six stories deep before my house does. Unfortunately, when I bought this place in a normally placid wooded neighborhood three years ago, I assumed that the high elevation equated with good drainage, since that would be such an easy engineering problem. For reasons I won't get into in this post, that is not the case and I have been flooded twice in the past two weeks to the extent our paper delivery person had to wade in to delivery my paper (I'm working on her medal recommendation letter) past cars nearly floating in my driveway. The first time I was also cleaning up after a large tree blew over and my garage and crawl space were flooded. The second time I had to deal with even higher water that overturned the contents of my garage, including gas cans and plastic bins of off-season clothing (not a good combination), and got to within a half inch of breaching my front door. These were both storms packing less than two inches of rain, but were of extreme intensity on already saturated ground.

They were supercell storms that generated high winds, golf-ball-sized hail, bizaare lightning frequency, tornadoes and torrential downpours. With a reasonably competent drainage system design, these storms should not have led to flooding in my neighborhood. A neighbor who has lived here for 55 years said she had never seen anything like the flooding this season. My raised-bed garden surrounded by 2x6s nearly floated off in what looked like a mountain stream and the tomatoes are listing. My understanding is that a solution to my local drainage issue is in design as I write this. I hope they sprung for the good engineers.

My greater concern is the larger question: are storms growning generally more severe in the Midwest as climate destabilizes and the Gulf of Mexico warms? Will there be any truly high ground in the future? How can we design for the type of extreme weather we have been seeing lately in the Midwest?

Due to my personal exposure, I have developed perhaps a heightened awareness of this issue, to the point that I check the weather radar about as much as I check my email. Last Friday, I noticed that hundreds of thunderheads were rising off the Gulf of Mexico and rushing toward the vortex of the low pressure system that was headed for Indianapolis. I told a design colleague who specializes in hydrology to go take a look at the national weather radar and see if he didn't share my concern that a major rainmaker was headed for us. I left work early to see if I could scrounge some big pumps and sandbags to save my house from the "big one." I was successful securing pumps and on Saturday I had a crew of extended family gathering sandbags (there were eight sandbags left at the city garage- we had to go to Lowes) and hooking up piping.

The radar showed a now-familiar train of severe thunderstorms headed our way with high winds, potential tornadoes, frequent lightning, hail and torrential rains. About the time we finished our preparations the radar picture showed the storms had tracked mostly to the south of the Indianapolis metropolitan area with disasterous effects. Whole towns in Morgan and Johnson and Bartholomew counties were flooded, as were interstate highways 70 and 65. Hospitals, designed for ultimate disaster resistance for obvious reasons, were taking on water and one had to be closed. The magnitude of the devastation made my predicament seem trivial. Another wave of powerful storms is headed our way on Monday, packing from 1 to 3 inches of rain. Stay tuned.

As for the bigger picture, have a look at the Science Daily story today about the potential relationship between climate destabilization and severe storms that mirrors my concerns. And later came the even more authoritative report by the U.S. Climate Science Program.

Please step over my dam and around the shiny new pump on my front porch. I'm going to leave them there until the 30-day wait for my national flood insurance policy ends and I feel a little less exposed. Perhaps then I will have time to post about how to design for disaster resistance in a world where the old rules of thumb are rapidly changing.

A Cubic Mile of Oil

This gas pump image was taken at a gas station in Shelburn, Indiana on September 11, 2001. On that eventful day I waited in a long line to get this precious fuel so I could get home after a bizarre day of speaking about green architecture at a conference where the shocked attendees all had other things on their minds.

I took the photo because it occurred to me that gas prices that high would change everything. Now that gas is back up to within $1.40 of that day's price, it is time to revisit that day's epiphany and explore why gas prices are so high now and where they may be going in the short term and the long term. How does the cost of oil impact other aspects of our lives? Finally, what are some potential strategies and solutions as we strive to go from brown to green, that is from the existing unsustainable situation to a preferred sustainable state?

A year ago, crude oil was selling for $66 per barrel (42 gallons per barrel). This week, it breezed past double that amount and regular gas prices rose above $4 per gallon at gas pumps around Indianapolis. According to the federal government, about 70% of the cost at the pump is directly related to the cost of crude oil. Crude oil prices are set by market forces, primarily by supply and demand, but also by more complex influences, such as the value of the dollar, instability in oil-producing states and also by less scientific factors such as market psychology, fear and rumor (the latter three provided the cost at the pump illustrated in Shelburn in 2001).

Demand for oil illustrates the degree to which the global economy and especially the U.S. economy is addicted to this non-renewable fossil fuel. According to IEEE Spectrum, annual consumption of oil world-wide is just over a cubic mile of oil.

The illustration at left gives you an idea of the volume of a cubic mile of oil by plopping down a 5,280-foot-tall tank on top of the famous square mile that is Downtown Indiapolis between North, South, East and West streets (that's six times the height of the 49-floor Chase Tower). Another way to picture that amount is to imagine a gallon of oil on every square foot of Indiana's 39,000 square miles. As the graphic illustrates, Americans make up only about 5% of the world population but consume almost a third of the world's crude oil, the majority of which is now imported. Oil production in the United States, once the world's largest producer, peaked in 1970 and we are currently importing at the rate of 13.6 million barrels a day, thereby exporting $1.7 billion dollars a day at $133/barrel. The top ten countries we import oil from are: Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, Angola, Ecuador, Algeria and Brazil. Looking at that list, you may get a feel for the idea of energy security. By wasting energy, we are enriching other nations, including some that may not be counted as particularly friendly or stable. We are currently spending $200 million a day to try to stabilize Iraq, for example.

According to a Newsweek article, the weight of U.S. vehicles has increased by nearly a thousand pounds in the past 20 years and the average horsepower has climbed from 118 to 223. In the same time period, the average miles driven per household has jumped 42 percent, from 19,000 miles to 27,000 miles last year. The nationwide average drive time to work is 24.3 minutes or 100 hours per year, the equivalent to 2.5 weeks of vacation time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The average gas mileage of "consumer road vehicles" in the U.S. is 17 miles per gallon, but there are over 50 models of automobiles that get more than twice that fuel efficiency and some get three times as much productivity per gallon of gas.

Each American uses the equivalent energy of 10 Chinese or 33 Indians, but that ratio is changing dramatically as those two most populous countries, over 3 billion people, get better at emulating our gas-fueled lifestyle. While U.S. oil consumption grew by 2.8% in 2004, demand in China grew by a staggering 15.8% and in India by 5.5%. Some experts believe part of the recent price surge has to do with China sucking up world diesel supplies to supplement their coal shortage and generate electricity for the provinces affected by the recent earthquake. I urge you to read The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What if Means for All of Us, by Robin Meredith to learn how the largest economy in the world, the United States, and the fourth largest economy in the world, China, will reach parity by 2015. Another must read is the June issue of Fast Company's Special Report by Richard Behar, China in Africa about how China is scrambling to lock up energy supplies and natural resources. 

The other elephant in the room that is causing rising demand is population growth. World population will grow to 8 to 12 billion by the end of this century while the resources needed to sustain that growth, such as fertile soil, fisheries, fertilizer, oil, water and raw materials are leveling off or declining. As current emerging nations and their swelling populations clamor for a western lifestyle, including our diet and our cars, crude oil demand may dramatically increase, even as supply begins to peak and then decline. 

Typically, gas prices subside after the Memorial Day weekend, and that may happen this summer as well, but many analysts are predicting a continuing surge in liquid fuel prices. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted crude oil prices will average $141 per barrel in the second half of the year. Earlier in May, a group of Goldman Sachs oil analysts raised the possibility of a "super-spike" in crude oil to $200 in the next year. Crude at $200/barrel would lead to gas at the pump in the $6 to $6.50 per gallon range. Because of our devalued dollar we are paying more for oil, which further increases our trade deficit, which further devalues our dollar.

Cars aren't the only things affected by the end of Cheap Oil. American Airlines, due to a 50% increase in jet fuel costs over the past year, plans to charge for baggage. Airline stocks are plummeting, flights and employees are being trimmed as jet fuel prices soar. Petroleum is used in the manufacture of thousands of products including plastics, fertilizers, fibers and asphalt. Products are shipped on planes, ships, river barges, trains and trucks using petroleum. Our globalized economy relies on cheap fuel to make it possible for us to purchase Fiji water or Fiji apples from the other side of the globe at a cost that makes local products manufactured with local labor non-competitive. Cheap fuel has made possible the suburbanization of America, the export of manufacturing jobs to China, and the success of transportation-dependent enterprises like Wal-Mart.

High fuel costs create inflation pressure across the entire spectrum. Diesel costs have risen faster than gas costs which has a huge impact on the trucking and construction industries that rely on diesel-powered vehicles. Reed Construction Data reported that asphalt costs are up by 13% from the first of the year and that steel suppliers "have been burning up the fax wires announcing huge price increases and canceling previous quotes." Any commodity that is made with high fuel energy inputs, such as steel, or has high petroleum content, such as asphalt and plastic, are seeing increased costs that will be passed along to consumers. Petroleum costs dramatically effect food costs by impacting the cost of producing, fertilizing, processing and shipping the world's food supply. Recent food riots in Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Yemen and Mexico point to the vulnerability felt more intensely by the poor of the world, who pay a larger part of their income for food and fuel.

At some point, all this inflation in prices will slow the global economy to the point where demand will be decreased and prices will fall, at least that has been the typical pattern. There's growing evidence, however, for another more fundamental pattern that will have much more significant impact long term. Just as oil production in the United States peaked in 1970, world oil production will likely peak and begin to decline at some point in the near future (if it hasn't already). Oil is a finite fossil resource, not a limitless resource. If you haven't yet heard of Peak Oil, it is worth your time to investigate this coming phenomenon. As world oil supply peaks and begins to decline, it is likely to have a dramatic impact on your daily life. A quick primer on Peak Oil is available at the Indiana Energy Conference Web Page. Another quick reference is provided by the City of Bloomington, Indiana Peak Oil Task Force or the Portland, Oregon Peak Oil Task Force. For a lengthier take on peak oil, consider this Peak Oil book list and the blog: The Oil Drum.

Consider how your life would be different if gas climbed above $6 per gallon in the next year and then just stayed there or kept climbing. How would you respond? How would that effect your job, your commute, your budget, and your lifestyle? As I stood there at the pump in Shelburn in 2001, I had the epiphany that everything had changed. In reality, it hadn't, but it may have been a premonition. How would you respond to that degree of change, especially if it was permanent? When the cubic mile of oil begins to decline and demand continues to grow, we will all be faced with some difficult decisions. No current technology exists to replace the energy density in all that oil in the amounts we are currently consuming, as the IEEE Spectrum article points out with a number of comparisons.

While this may sound like doom and gloom, there are some silver linings to this fundamental change in the way we use energy and a wealth of opportunities for people who are looking ahead. There are some obvious responses to consider and these will be subjects for future posts:

Denial - this is most common response to dramatic change, exemplified in this instance by politicians who offer to cut fuel taxes or divert contributions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, two actions that work against a long-term solution and would have very little impact in the short term.
Anger - this is another common response, equally unproductive, exemplified by tirades against the oil companies or gas station owners, when the real solution rests with the person you see in the mirror in the morning.
Conservation - this is perhaps the most proactive, least expensive, most productive and most profitable response. This is one response that will generate new jobs and new industries that thrive on new clean energy technology. This is also the easiest one to pull off in most cases. Carpooling, taking the bus, walking, biking, eliminating unnecessary trips or buying more fuel efficient vehicles all fall into this category. Moving closer to work or locating in a well-designed smart development are other ways to participate in this response. If everyone drove a vehicle that got 34 miles per gallon, we wouldn't be importing oil.

Alternative Fuels - this is one of those clean tech opportunities that will lift the tide of investment in fuels like cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel from algae grown with municipal sewage and other alternative fuels under development. The problem with this scenario it that we are nowhere near producing enough alternative fuel to make a serious dent in the cubic mile of oil and ramping up new technology often takes 20 years or more. We need to get serious about alternative fuels by shifting at least some of the current subsidies from oil companies to alternative energy research and development. 

Advanced Fuel-efficient Vehicles - lightweight, aerodynamic, hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles can offer part of the solution. Introduction of several plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in 2010 from major manufacturers, including Toyota, General Motors (Chevy Volt pictured) and Ford promises to change the landscape and offers the opportunity for the "smart garage" concept to take hold which provides potential synergy with wind and solar power to interface with the electrical grid in an intelligent manner that makes all three technologies more viable. The batteries in plug-in hybrids, for example, can be used to store power generated by wind turbines to help level peak loads on the grid. Conventional hybrid cars passed 3% market share in March and Toyota sold it's millionth Prius.

Mass transit - many communities don't offer a viable alternative to personal transportation because they were designed during the automobile-centric suburban sprawl age and mass transit just isn't feasible any time soon. In Indianapolis, plans are afoot to start commuter rail service from the Northeast quadrant to Downtown using vintage trains at a fraction of the cost for an all-new system. A massive shift in emphasis is needed away from funding highways toward funding mass transit and transit oriented development (TOD) to provide the density necessary to make mass transit viable. 
Localization - globalization depends on cheap fuel to transport the goods manufactured in China to be sold in the United States, for example. As fuel costs and transportation costs climb, a greater emphasis on local and regional trade will become more common, as will a return to local labor and local manufacturing. This is particularly apparent in the growing Local Foods (consumed by locovores) and Slow Foods movements.
Smart Development - walkable neighborhoods and cities are coming back where cars are optional but sidewalks are mandatory. Property values are beginning to increase closer to urban cores and decrease in proportion to commuting distance to the core. A good introduction to this topic can be gleaned from, Surburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream,  by Andres Duany, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk, and Jeff Speck. Another, more current read on the topic from the Urban Land Institute is Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change, which documents how key changes in land development patterns could help reduce vehicle use and greenhouse emissions. 
Sustainable Agriculture - modern agribusiness is petroleum intensive including the fuel consumed manufacturing and transporting the high-horsepower tractors, to keep them running, to make the fertilizer and spread it, to plow the fields and plant the crops, to keep them cultivated and irrigated, to harvest the crops, dry the grain and transport it to market. Sustainable agriculture attempts to mimic more diverse natural systems and reduce the need for intervention with power equipment.
Green Buildings - While buildings may not be considered to be gas guzzlers, they are among the worst offenders in terms of wasting energy and resources and offer a large part of the solution. Green buildings use materials and energy more wisely and are less dependent on fossil fuels. Buildings can be designed today to use a third less energy without increasing the initial cost. Off-the-shelf technology is available to design buildings that make as much energy as they use, including the energy required to make their components, ship them to the site and erect the buildings. LEED Platinum buildings, net-zero-energy buildings and Living Buildings are relatively rare now, but they point the way to standard building design of the 21st Century. 

Please stay tuned to this blog as we take a closer look at each of these areas and drill down into the details to move from brown to green. Your comments and ideas for future posts are appreciated.